Northern Lights Forecast in Iceland Tonight and this Weekend 11.-13. October 2019
There is no Geomagnetic Storm on the way but if you are in Iceland now you might still have a fair chance at spotting some good looking Northern Lights in the next few days.
The Geomagnetic activity is mostly forecast at 2-3 Kp which is good (dropping to 1Kp for brief periods on Saturday), even though the Kp scale is 0-9, as rarely does the forecast go over 3, very rarely over 5 and almost never does it go to 8 or 9.
Northern Lights Forecast in Iceland Tonight and this Weekend 11.-13. October 2019
Below is a brief overview of the Aurora Forecast in Iceland Tonight. Bear in mind that a forecast, like weather, is a living thing, not a sneak peek into future. The forecast can, and most probably will, change from now until darkness tonight even. Make sure you check the forecast data on www.auroraforecast.is before planning your Northern Lights hunt.
The images below are screenshots taken of our cloud cover forecasts as they were today.
Purple: low level clouds
Orange/red: mid level clouds
Green: high level clouds
Low and mid level clouds are the biggest concern. High level clouds can be thin and, especially with strong activity, Auroras can be seen through them.
Moonlight pollution. Annoyingly for Aurora hunters, full moon falls on October 13th, rising just after sunset and setting just before sunrise. The light from the moon is in itself a light pollutant and can wash out mild Auroras if it’s bright enough. Also, with a bright moon like this weekend, the high clouds can become a cover of white light (sucking up the moonlight) and thus blocking the Northern Lights.
Ironically, October’s full moon is commonly known as Hunter’s Moon. Whereas a Northern Lights hunter’s moon would be a No Moon 🙂
Once on the road looking for a clear sky, your best tool is the Satellite Clouds image (click the tab above the cloud cover, on the front page). When you find a clear sky there is no need to look further, now you start waiting. The Auroras can happen as quickly as lighting. Keep your eyes peeled. With the lower Kp rating forecasts you want to make sure you don’t have anything blocking your view towards North, like a big mountain.
What time are the Northern Lights most likely to appear?
Lady Aurora can do her dance day or night. Basically, as long as you have darkness and a clear sky you have a fair shot at seeing some of her awesome moves. Once she stops don’t be fooled as she can re-appear just as fast as she disappears. If you are a fanatic, get an app to wake you up by alerting you when the lights start moving. We recommend Live Aurora Network. Then you can wake up to a 5am alert (for example), if that’s when Aurora decides to show up, and hopefully the display lasts long enough for you to leg it out of the house in your jammies!
Should you go on your own or join a tour?
If conditions are perfect, or if you are very lucky or if you are happy reading the weather you can do well on your own. If you do venture out on your own in a vehicle, always check the Safe Travel and Safe websites first.
Should you want to maximise your chances of a sighting, perhaps have your photo taken under the lights, and/or soak in the wisdom of a professional Northern Lights hunter you may want to book a tour.
Today, Friday 11. October 2019
If the forecast comes through, the South West should be free enough of clouds for us to see a nice Kp2 Northern Lights display. The strong moonlight could wash out the intensity somewhat, especially if the lights are mild.
Tomorrow, Saturday 12. October 2019
Much of the country is forecast to be clouded up, but the North and North-East part of the country look viable.
Sunday 13. October 2019
Again, a lot of the country is forecast to be covered in clouds. A lot of it looks to be only high level clouds (the green bit) so you could get lucky.
REMEMBER: This is just a forecast and it can change fast in Iceland where the weather systems move very fast over our little island in the middle of the ocean. Check the forecast again before you go out, use the satellite images to see what’s really happening as well as your eyes on the skies once you start hunting 🙂
HAPPY NORTHERN LIGHTS HUNTING! Tag us in your photos on Instagram: aurora_forecast_iceland and on Facebook: Aurora Forecast Iceland.
Thanks to Nordanheidar for the featured photo!
